Z/Z Flop: Zarqawi And The Media
The US Central Command has posted an analysis of the "Zawahiri/Zarqawi" letter. Central commands are often accused of being overly optimistic about the US prospects in the wars they are centrally commanding, but this analysis is largely exempt from such criticisms, since it's in the words of the enemy.
It's just a page or two long and spells out seven themes, four that refresh as Qaeda's goals, beliefs and strategies, and three that discuss how badly the GWOT is hurting them.
A major theme among the first set is aQ's recognition that the media is key to their success or failure:
If Zarqawi follows commands, expect the campaign of suicide and car bombs against civilian Iraqi targets to slow or end with the upcoming constitutional vote -- and turn more aggressively against US targets. There's no PR for aQ in killing Muslims, so they have no choice but to take on strategically much more complicated missions.
Second, now that they have had their role clearly spelled out to them, how will the media respond. Z/Z is more concerned with the Arab media, which might just fall for a "PR campaign" based around killing Americans instead of Arabs.
But what about the US media? It's clear Z/Z is hoping for a media uprising against the Iraq war as effective as the one against Vietnam. Will knowing this affect their coverage?
I doubt it. Their eyes have been put out by the God of Objectivity, a bruttal god who is not to be confused with the much more munificent God of Fairness or the powerful but difficult God of Common Sense.
They will say that cannot let externals influence their coverage, and they will put this silliness ahead of the lives of our troops and the future of the world, to their eternal shame.
Update: Thanks to WizBang for directing me to Citizen Smash, which has a thoughtful and spot-on analysis of the Z/Z letter.
It's just a page or two long and spells out seven themes, four that refresh as Qaeda's goals, beliefs and strategies, and three that discuss how badly the GWOT is hurting them.
A major theme among the first set is aQ's recognition that the media is key to their success or failure:
Zawahiri clearly is worried they are losing public support in Iraq, and is attuned to the role of the media in the battle for such support.Two points:
Zawahiri emphasizes that the struggle is ideological, with each side competing for the popular support and loyalty of the Muslim world. Zarqawi’s methods are backfiring by alienating the Iraqi people with attacks against the Shia.
If Zarqawi follows commands, expect the campaign of suicide and car bombs against civilian Iraqi targets to slow or end with the upcoming constitutional vote -- and turn more aggressively against US targets. There's no PR for aQ in killing Muslims, so they have no choice but to take on strategically much more complicated missions.
Second, now that they have had their role clearly spelled out to them, how will the media respond. Z/Z is more concerned with the Arab media, which might just fall for a "PR campaign" based around killing Americans instead of Arabs.
But what about the US media? It's clear Z/Z is hoping for a media uprising against the Iraq war as effective as the one against Vietnam. Will knowing this affect their coverage?
I doubt it. Their eyes have been put out by the God of Objectivity, a bruttal god who is not to be confused with the much more munificent God of Fairness or the powerful but difficult God of Common Sense.
They will say that cannot let externals influence their coverage, and they will put this silliness ahead of the lives of our troops and the future of the world, to their eternal shame.
Update: Thanks to WizBang for directing me to Citizen Smash, which has a thoughtful and spot-on analysis of the Z/Z letter.
posted by Laer at 7:05 AM
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