Cheat-Seeking Missles

Wednesday, February 07, 2007

Will The Surge Be Another Fallujah?

Iraq the Model reported last night from Baghdad that military ops finally appear to be surging:
Minutes after nighttime curfew began in Baghdad at 9 pm we saw breaking news on al-Hurra and al-Jazeera saying that Baghdad's security operation has just started.

The news says the first operation is currently underway in Azamiyah in the northeastern part of the city.

However, it looks quiet here at the moment, except for a sudden increase in activity in the skies with US jet fighters patrolling over the northern parts of Baghdad.

We're now only a few kilometers far from Azamiyah, so if there's going to be some action, we'll certainly hear-or see-it, and we'll keep you updated.
"But," the report continues, "an assistant to PM Maliki denied that this was the start of the new security operation, saying that this is a limited operation (the government ordered) after receiving information that insurgents are hiding in the neighborhood."

One word has been running through my mind over the last week as I've been thinking about the troop surge and the push to clean out and secure terror hotbeds in Iraq. That word is Fallujah.

That operation missed the mark because we gave so much warning to the civilians to flee before starting the battle. Many terrorists stayed to fight, but the leaders, the financiers, the strategists all slipped away with the "civilians" leaving the city.

Now that we're in week three (or so) of detailing what we're going to do on our new offensive, how many insurgent leaders do you suppose are left in the targeted neighborhoods?

On the morning of Sept. 11, 2001, an airplane appeared unheralded over the New York City skyline and without fanfare or early announcements to protect civilians, slammed into the World Trade Center -- with the desired effect.

In the late hours of Feb. 6, 2007, after weeks of pronouncements and press conferences, an operation that might have been the start of the surge took place in Azamiyah, with simultaneous reporting from al-Hurra and al-Jazeera announcing the start. The result: 12 houses raided and some armaments siezed.

Was that the desired effect? Probably not.

Up until the dawn of June 16, 1944, the Germans had no idea when or where we would assault Europe. Misinformation clouded their perception, leading to advantages we exploited.

I hope the events of last night were nothing more than a misinformation campaign designed to give us the advantage when the real surge starts, but I fear that the way we fight wars has changed too dramatically to allow that.

Hat-tip: memeorandum
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