Why Would Iran Give In To IAEA?
ElBaradei bases his optimism on talks between Iran and Russia, and pressure from Europe.
But if Iran is progressing easily towards nukes, why would it talk? Why would it give up is billion-dollar investment in enrichment, and turn to Putin for that task? Fear of sanctions? I don't think so. First, sanctions not likely to occur, given the sorry state of the UN; and second, Tehran probably feels it could weather sanctions fairly well.
I think it's another fear: Fear that they won't get their bomb in time to use it because they feel their hold in Iran slipping.
Yesterday's NYTimes reported Iran's still at least five years away from nukes. The Mullahs have crushed their first real opposition -- a bus drivers strike -- but they're probably smart enough to know that there's more trouble ahead.
Cheats that they are, my guess is they're buying time with negotiations, that they hope they'll figure out what's wrong with their centrifuges by working with Russia on enrichment, and that their bomb-lust is unabated.
Related Tags: Iran, Tehran, IAEA, Nukes, Mullahs