Cheat-Seeking Missles

Saturday, January 26, 2008

Poll Check

As Palmetto State voters turn out, possibly in record numbers, to vote in the Dem primary, let's take a look at what the pollsters have to say. Here are the Real Clear Politics polling averages on the eve of voting:
Obama -- 38.4
Clinton -- 26.8
Edwards -- 19.2
We'll check back after the results are in to see if the pollsters were up to snuff. Until then, some thoughts:

If Edwards can't carry the state he was born in, the state next door to the state he represented in the Senate, why is he still running? Even his VP wishes will then be dashed, since one of the roles of the traditional VP (Cheney nothwithstanding) is to deliver some states.

The LAT is trying to generate some hype over the idea that Edwards is gaining traction in the final days (just like Fred Thompson did ... not) and just might edge out Clinton ... that would shake things up a bit, but it's just desperate pundritry, and she's really tossed out the state anyway, focusing on Super Tuesday states instead.

What do the polls tell us about racial voting in the South? Well, nothing from these superfluous numbers, but when we get a chance to look at the details, will we see a big black vote for Obama and a split white vote between Edwards and Clinton? If that's what happens, why do we bother to listen to the Dems about civil rights? Blacks, by the way, make up 50 percent of the SC Dem electorate, by the way.

And finally, if Obama finishes with a lead of these proportions, what does it tell us about his future as a prez wannabe? Not much. He can't win unless he can win a big-delegate state, and we won't know that until the night of Feb. 5.

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