How Many Days Will Ceasefire Last?

I don't think we can ask how many weeks or months the ceasefire will hold.

The hoped for answer: Long enough for Israel to get its house in order, steel its resolve, and prepare itself for the difficult task of defeating Hezbollah.

The possible answer: Not long enough. Hezbollah never considered for a moment that it would honor the ceasefire, and now that most Israeli troops are once again south of the border, they're heating up their rhetoric. JPost:

The issue of disarmament is not on the agenda, senior Hizbullah official Hassan Fadlallah said on Wednesday, jeopardizing the fragile cease-fire in the region. The UN cease-fire resolution clearly states that the area south of the Litani river must be demilitarized.

According to Fadlallah, who spoke with al-Jazeera, Hizbullah will not evacuate its operatives from southern Lebanon since they are the ones who populate the region. "Any such withdrawal means the evacuation of southern Lebanon," he said.

That's nearly as great a provocation as firing missiles into northern Israel.

The much-criticized ceasefire, it seems to me, was designed with the knowledge it would fail -- it was a question of how it would fail. As written, it will accomplish failure through Israel legally defending itself from further outrageous Hezbollah provocations.

I think Bolton and Rice were hoping to give Israel a bit more time. Just look at the front page of JPost or Haaretz to see how upset the Israelis are with their prime minister and defense minister. These were not men who could win a war; let's hope the days of ceasefire bring internal changes -- a new defense minister is distinctly possible -- so when Hezbollah provokes, Israel pounds.

Related Tags: UN, Ceasefire, Israel, Lebanon, Hezbollah