Cheat-Seeking Missles

Saturday, January 19, 2008

Poll Check: Update

Now the results are in from South Carolina, so I'm updating my earlier post on the Nevada results, which you'll now see below the discussion of South Carolina.

This morning I posted the latest polls' predictions; using Real Clear Politics' average of several polls; they are repeated below, this time followed by the actuals:

So, South Carolina with 98 percent of precincts reporting:
McCain: Poll - 26.9%; Actual - 33%
Huckabee: Poll - 25.9, Actual - 30
Thompson: Poll - 14.7, Actual - 16
Romney: Poll - 14.6, Actual - 15
Paul: Poll - 4.4, Actual - 4
Giuliani: Poll - 3.4, Actual - 2
In South Carolina, the polls got the race right, although the numbers were off a bit. But all in all, the pollsters earned their keep. Unfortunately the hoped-for Thompson surge some polls sniffed out failed to amount to much.

And here's the earlier materials, starting with the Nevada GOP, with RCP averages, then actuals:
Romney: Poll - 25.7% , Actual - 52%
McCain: Poll - 20.7 , Actual - 13
Huckabee: Poll - 12.3, Actual - 8
Giuliani: Poll - 11.7, Actual - 4
Thompson: Poll - 10.7, Actual- 8
Paul: Poll - 7.3, Actual - 13
Nevada Dems, RCP averages
Clinton: Poll - 37.8%, Actual - 51%
Obama: Poll - 33.8, Actual - 45
Edwards: Poll - 18, Actual - 4
These results are with 90 percent of precincts reporting, so they're pretty fixed.

Once again, the results are far outside the standard five percent margin for error. The misread of the both the GOP and Dem results was equality bad, to the point of showing the polls to be nearly worthless.

Perhaps the worst news is Paul's 13 percent grab, for an apparent tie for second. That means he will be able to say that he's a credible candidate -- in Nevada at least, which is perhaps the most atypical state in America. Loony desert rats for Paul!

Polls in South Carolina may close soon ... may not. McCain's pushing for the polls to be kept open longer due to bad weather conditions. As soon as they do close, I'll update again with those more interesting and meaningful results -- but for now, another bad day for the pollsters.

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