Mortality In New Orleans
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In the coming days, we will begin to learn the scope of the tragedy in New Orleans as the dead are chronicled (and hopefully not televised). Just as this will be a period of life-sized questions, it is also going to be a situation of petty, meaningless sensationalism.
I noted this the other day when I heard a great deal being made of eight to ten people dying a day at the Superdome.
Sad as that was, the facts tell us it probably isn't that much more than would have been dying without Katrina. None of the reports issued the background mortality rate, and none mentioned that there was an unusually high population of sick and infirm among those who decided not to evacuate the city.
In the few minutes I've spent on this post, I haven't found summertime mortality rates for New Orleans. It's important to find summertime rates, because there is a definite association between high temperatures and mortality. I did find, however, that 41,984 people died in Lousiana in 2003, or about 112 a day. In New York, the mortality rate hovers around 130 daily and climbs to between 150 and 200 with higher temperatures. In Jacksonville, the figures are not dissimilar. (source)
Against these numbers, 8 or 10 people dying in a day at the Superdome, while terribly sad, is not terribly unreasonable.
I don't wish to downplay the suffering and the loss. I just desire clarity, and in this case, clarity leads us to the conclusion that the sensationalists are being just that: sensational.
In the coming days, we will begin to learn the scope of the tragedy in New Orleans as the dead are chronicled (and hopefully not televised). Just as this will be a period of life-sized questions, it is also going to be a situation of petty, meaningless sensationalism.
I noted this the other day when I heard a great deal being made of eight to ten people dying a day at the Superdome.
Sad as that was, the facts tell us it probably isn't that much more than would have been dying without Katrina. None of the reports issued the background mortality rate, and none mentioned that there was an unusually high population of sick and infirm among those who decided not to evacuate the city.
In the few minutes I've spent on this post, I haven't found summertime mortality rates for New Orleans. It's important to find summertime rates, because there is a definite association between high temperatures and mortality. I did find, however, that 41,984 people died in Lousiana in 2003, or about 112 a day. In New York, the mortality rate hovers around 130 daily and climbs to between 150 and 200 with higher temperatures. In Jacksonville, the figures are not dissimilar. (source)
Against these numbers, 8 or 10 people dying in a day at the Superdome, while terribly sad, is not terribly unreasonable.
I don't wish to downplay the suffering and the loss. I just desire clarity, and in this case, clarity leads us to the conclusion that the sensationalists are being just that: sensational.
posted by Laer at 8:40 AM
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