China, Oil and Foreign Policy

There's an excellent commentary by David Zweig and Bi Jinahai today at Real Clear Politics on oil and China's foreign policy.

In an earlier era, Japan's quest for natural resources to fuel its industrial machine brought about first business, then military, expansion by Japan throughout Asia. China's quest is even more dramatic than Japan's, because keeping the economy rising is the Communist government's primary strategy for holding onto power long-term -- and far superior to the military force alternative.

It's not the 1930s and 1940s today, but we need to be learners from history, not repeaters of it. In that light, this excerpt from the 5-click story is troubling and insightful:

Although China's new energy demands need not be a source of serious conflict with the West in the long term, at the moment, Beijing and Washington feel especially uneasy about the situation. While China struggles to manage its growing pains, the United States, as the world's hegemon, must somehow make room for the rising giant; otherwise, war will become a serious possibility. According to the power transition theory, to maintain its dominance, a hegemon will be tempted to declare war on its challengers while it still has a power advantage. Thus, easing the way for the United States and China -- and other states -- to find a new equilibrium will require careful management, especially of their mutual perceptions.

Because China's extraordinary growth also increases its dependence on foreign resources, the Chinese government has developed a new sense of insecurity vis-a-vis the United States. An article published last June in the Beijing-backed Hong Kong newspaper Ta Kung Pao suggested that Washington might resort to economic tactics to contain China. Given the White House's current penchant for unilateral intervention and the loud voices in Congress calling China a military threat, Beijing might reasonably begin to fear that the United States will try to block its purchases of natural resources to destabilize it. Washington must be mindful of these worries and not exacerbate them needlessly.