Cheat-Seeking Missles

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Poll Check

In the final minutes before voters in North Carolina go to the polls, the RCP average has Obama up by 8.0, dominating all the polls RCP scans, from a low of +4.0 to a high of +14.0. (The high, BTW, is Zogby, which is continuing this election season in its quest to prove itself inaccurate and inconsequential.)

In good ol' Indiana, home of most of my relatives and my alma mater, the RCP average shows Clinton up by 5.0 after being behind in the third week of April. The swing is almost as dramatic as in NC, from Obama up by 2.0 to Clinton up by 12.0.

Guess who has Obama up by 2? Zogby, natch.

So there's a swing of 18 points in the NC polls and 14 in the Indiana polls, this after pollsters know pretty much exactly what they'll get from each demographic. So it appears obvious to me that the polling operations that aren't playing fair are cherry-picking their demos (blacks for Zogby, white women for SurveyUSA which has high numbers for Clinton in both polls).

We'll check back this evening to see how the pollsters fared.

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