Cheat-Seeking Missles

Monday, December 10, 2007

Medvedev: A Safe Choice For Putin

In the end, it all boiled down to two men. Putin would endorse one, and the one he endorsed could become Russia's next president.

Contender number one was Sergei Ivanov, a first deputy premier who, says WSJ, "built up a stern and hawkish reputation while defense minister."

The other, "a business-friendly lawyer and board chairman of state natural-gas giant Gazprom," was another first deputy primier, Dmitry Medvedev.

Let's look at the two as Putin would:
  • Ivanov is a tough guy, much like Putin. He's built a core of support in the military as defense minister and in a Russia hungry for rekindled prominence on the world stage, could easily enough build his military support into public support.

  • Medvedev is an inside player, a safe bet for the economy, and more likely to support Putin's wishes than his own.
No contest, eh? In fact, if Putin decided in a couple years that he's had enough time without the reins of power firmly in his grip, he could ask Medvedev to step down, and the lawyer would most likely do so, opening the door for a new Putin Era.

So who is the incoming president of Russia? Look behind the veil and you'll see it's the outgoing president of Russia.

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