Cheat-Seeking Missles

Saturday, December 08, 2007

2007 Challenges Warmie Faith

Trust the models, trust the models: That's the Holy Grail that fires the Warmie faith. But like the street corner prophet predicting Jesus' immediate return, these predictions can go wrong, challenging the faith.

The street corner prophets at the Met Office, the British meteorological agency, made this prediction on Jan. 4, 2007:
Met Office global forecast for 2007
  • Global temperature for 2007 is expected to be 0.54 °C above the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0 °C;
  • There is a 60% probability that 2007 will be as warm or warmer than the current warmest year (1998 was +0.52 °C above the long-term 1961-1990 average).
Not just that, but this too:
Katie Hopkins from Met Office Consulting said: "This new information represents another warning that climate change is happening around the world. Our work in the climate change consultancy team applies Met Office research to help businesses mitigate against risk and adapt at a strategic level for success in the new environment."
They seem to have been staking an awful lot of what their models said about 2007.

Well, it turns out the Met was a bit off. With just a few weeks to go, writes David Whitehouse, it's looking like 2007 will be the coolest year this century and possibly the coolest since 1995.

Turst the models ... trust the models ... trust the models ....

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