Cheat-Seeking Missles

Sunday, December 10, 2006

Greenies Admit Global Warming Hype

The two hooks you have to swallow to get hauled up onto global warming boat are, first, that the earth is warming and second, that you, me and Aunt Tillie are largely to blame for the problem.

There are reasons not to accept the first hook, er, hook, line and sinker. But for the sake of discussion, let's say the earth really is warming. That alone is not enough to give Warmies a rationale for a major political power grab like, say, the Kyoto Accords. No, for that they need the second hook, the hook that's harder for most of us to swallow.

When you've got mammals farting and volcanoes spewing and oceans evaporating, what's the big deal with our relatively trifling emissions? When carbon dioxide makes up just a tad of earth's atmosphere, why give up the global economy to make little cuts in our CO2 emissions? Aye, that's the thing the global weather models have to groan and wheeze to justify.

And guess what? Their models were wrong! From the UK Telegraph:

Mankind has had less effect on global warming than previously supposed, a United Nations report on climate change will claim next year.

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says there can be little doubt that humans are responsible for warming the planet, but the organisation has reduced its overall estimate of this effect by 25 per cent. ...

It also says that the overall human effect on global warming since the industrial revolution is less than had been thought, due to the unexpected levels of cooling caused by aerosol sprays, which reflect heat from the sun.

Large amounts of heat have been absorbed by the oceans, masking the warming effect.

The study says CO2 is increasing, but in another admission of faulty modeling, the scientists are admitting that sea levels are not rising as quickly as their models previously indicated.

Even with all these flub-ups, we are still expected to dutifully accept that the new studies are right, and take that 25 percent oops on faith. Well, how about not taking it on faith? Why not expect later admissions that our role is even less?

Even the admission that their models are 25% off is profound.

First, it means that every dollar we spend trying to reduce our emissions will yield less global benefit. That argues all the more for spending the money where it will do more good: fighting infectuous diseases, providing clean water and providing infrastructure to help improve weak economies.

Second, it is a warning to all of us that models are models and facts are facts, and we shouldn't confuse one with the other. Warmism, like all religions, demands accepting things on faith. Now that they've admitted the High Saint of Human Causation is only three-quarters as almighty as they said he was, we skeptics are more skeptical.

Related Tags: