Cheat-Seeking Missles

Saturday, February 18, 2006

Iran Six Weeks From Nukes?

Michael Ledeen in National Review scoops two Iran news biggies: That Boss Mullah Ali Khamenei is dying, forcing an internal political struggle, and that (gulp) Iran will soon have its nuke:
Sometime in late November or early December (2005), Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei gathered his top advisers for an overall strategic review. The atmosphere was highly charged, because Khamenei’s doctors have diagnosed a serious cancer, and do not expect the Supreme Leader to live much more than a year. A succession struggle is already under way, with the apparently unsinkable Hashemi Rafsanjani in the thick of it, even though Khamenei, and his increasingly powerful son Mushtaba, is opposed to the perennial candidate-for-whatever.

Despite this disquieting news, the overall tone of the conversation was upbeat, because the Iranians believe they see many positive developments, above all, the declaration that "it has been promised that by 8 April, we will be in a position to show the entire world that 'we are members of the club." This presumably refers to nuclear weapons.

It's a dark and depressing article, but has the same ray of light I saw Thursday in Condi's comments on Iran to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Internally, the mullahs are struggling to hold the Iranian people in their iron grip.

Ledeen talks of the routine execution of thousands of citizens, of growing labor unrest, and of a government now afraid to even let its own officials travel abroad.

We are in a race then. The finish line might be April 8. Can the sick and sickening regime last until then and deploy its nuke, forever changing world history, or will world history catch up with it, and its divided house tumble into chaos?

Odds are with the mullahs, because time is so short. That means our efforts to sow discord and encourage uprisings need to be redoubled.

hat-tip: Daily Pundit
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