Hurricane Season Is Over. Al? Al??
"For the 2006 north Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become 'major' hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," added retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. (NOAA, May 22,2006)Well, they're making excuses this year, not brash predictions.
The mild 2006 Atlantic hurricane season draws to a close Thursday without a single hurricane striking the United States — a stark contrast to the record-breaking 2005 season that killed more than 1,500 people and left thousands homeless along the Gulf Coast. (AP)Goes to show what scientists and their fancy models know.
Barring a last-second surprise from the tropics, the season will end Thursday with nine named storms, and only five of those hurricanes. This year is the first season since 1997 that only one storm nudged its way into the Gulf of Mexico. (Tampa Trib)
There is not a valid argument against global warming computer models in itself -- models are supposed to predict general trends over time, not specific years -- but it is solid proof that you can't believe every dire prediction the Warmies throw your way.
Less solid but still worthy of your consideration is that predictions of rapid climate change are not worth much, either. If global warming is increasing at some sort of shattering rate, then there is less and less chance for normal to low hurricane seasons like this year's.
Today, 308 blogs posted on this year's hurricane season ... a drop in the bucket compared to the hand-wringing posts that appeared last year, as the scientists launched their predictions that this year would be another big storm year.
While I'm glad that millions of people have now witnessed that you need to take Warmie predictions with a grain of salt, I'm much more glad that even more millions enjoyed a lovely summer and fall without screaming winds and surging storm flows. That's a very good thing.
hat-tip Right Winged; photo: Storm Stock
Related Tags: Global warming, Hurricanes, Hurricane season