It's The Iranian Economy, Stupid!

Sure, we're thinking about nukes and terror, but true to Clintonesque electioneering, for the Iranian on the street the past election was all about the economy, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's win has more to do with his promises to clean up the corruption favored by the Mullahs than it does with anti-American jihadism.

Not that Ahmadinejad's administration isn't one we should watch carefully -- he is a revolutionary Islamic radical, after all -- but the other game is worth scrutinizing as well. If Pres. A. tries to keep his long-established pledges to clean up corruption and equalize the economy, it will be against the exerted pressure of the existing establishment, i.e., the Mullahs.

Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, calls it "The fatal flaw in Iran's regime" in an International Herald Tribune op/ed today:

Iran's most recent election was notable in that it reflected the revolt of the younger generation of conservatives who are offended by the corruption of their elders, and a hard-pressed working class who have suffered continuous economic strain. Ahmadinejad managed to adroitly mobilize these constituencies, which historically had served as the backbone of the conservative bloc.

The elder clerics, accustomed to the privilege of power, had always looked warily at the young mayor but were compelled to accept him because of his popularity among the lower classes. Now that Ahmadinejad has been elected, he may find the task of carrying out his campaign promises far more difficult than he imagined.

Over the past 26 years, the clerical oligarchs have constructed an economy designed to operate to their direct benefit. As Ahmadinejad noted in his campaign, the epidemic of corruption has even reached into the oil industry through a network of ostensibly private companies. These well-connected companies have positioned themselves as compulsory partners for foreign investors who seek access to Iranian petroleum markets.

What the new president did not mention during his campaign critique was that these companies are all owned by the clerical leaders and their families, who are not about to relinquish such easy wealth. Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Ahmadinejad's principle challenger for the presidency, may have been the most notorious example of such corrupt practices, but he is one of many.

h/t Real Clear Politics