Red Light To Peace Talks

The pollsters and pundits got it wrong, proving once again the difficulties inherent in trying to get a read on the Arab Street.

At one level, Hamas' sweeping victory over Fatah, like Amadinijan's victory in Iran, is simply a local vote against corruption -- and boy, is Fatah corrupt. Most who voted for Amadinijan didn't vote for the bomb, but for an end to favoratism and graft. Hamas made a similar promise.

But just as Amadinijan's election is driving the bomb-quest forward, Hamas' victory is driving peace with Israel away.

What is Israel to do? First, recognize the risk, according to a JPost article, Is There Room for Optimism? In it, Dore Gold, president of The Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, ,makes the Hamas/terrorist connection:

"Hamas is not just another Palestinian party. It is the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is still illegal in Egypt. In the Arab world, the Muslim Brotherhood is viewed as the main precursor for all radical Islamist groups, including Al Qaeda.

"Everyone knows that Osama bin Laden's mentor, Sheik Abdel Azzam, came out of the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood and that Ayman al Zawahiri (Bin Ladin's second in command) once belonged to the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. Therefore, Israel has to understand that the Hamas victory could lead to the emergence of a terrorist entity right next to its main cities."

So Israel must block the borders, move the troops and be prepared to take out terrorist leaders who are also elected officials. That's not pretty, is it?

Gideon Greenstein, founder and president of The Re'ut Institute says in the article that there's a spark of hope in the election: That Israel can use the international outrage over the results to leverage action. This has never worked before, and we'll know soon enough it will work this time by watching the EU and the UN.

They have a powerful signaling device in their hands: most of the money the Palestinian Authority receives. Are they going to signal that terrorists are just OK with them, or are they going to find their long-missing spine and cut off Palestine until it gains its electoral, political and diplomatic senses?

Your guess is as good as mine. I'm betting they won't do anything nearly as definitive as they should.

And then us. Thank God for W. and Condi. We will stand by Israel, refuse to recognize Hamas, and work the frayed edges of the situation, looking for cracks and breaks.

With Hamas in and Sharon out, the situation is certainly ripe for war and chaos. But it is also in times like this that unforeseen Nixon-in-China moments happen. So there is hope. Dim hope, but hope nonetheless.

Photo: Damir Sagolj/Reuters